Irvin is having a rough season, with a bloated ERA and sub-two strikeouts-per-walk pace. His struggles inflame Washington’s trouble, while the Sox may capitalize on shaky control to push across runs and build innings that end in big counts for Sox hitters.

Jake Irvin, the Nationals' starter, faced a two-run damage inning, finishing with a typical five-inning line while throwing for 80+ pitches against the Mets.

Irvin’s five-inning profile features a higher ERA, but prior quality starts against Atlanta give Washington a glimmer of upside in a rain-affected tilt. The model’s 45% win projection hinges on early runs and efficient innings.

Irvin draws the Nationals into a Friday start against the Cubs, carrying an 8-20 record and 5.42 ERA as Washington attempts to stay in the mix in a crowded division.

Irvin starts for Washington in a key spot, needing length and quality against a Rays lineup capable of exploiting mistakes. A strong effort could stabilize WAS’s rotation down the stretch and influence fantasy streaming decisions.